Super Bowl XLVI Predictions From a Copywriter

While it would be easy and more relevant to talk about the plethora of ads that will air during the Super Bowl and muse upon digital advertising, crowdsourcing and what the E-Trade baby will do, I will instead wax poetic about what is happening between those commercial breaks: the glorious game itself.

Analysts like Trent Dilfer and Peter King have already pegged this Super Bowl as almost a carbon copy matchup of Super Bowl XVLII, with most of the linemen from the New York Giants and New England Patriots returning to the big stage. While that is true, I think a few key additions made in that four year span will make a huge difference in how well Tom Brady is or isn't protected. This game-within-the-game will decide the Super Bowl.

While Michael Strahan had an illustrious career as a Giant that ended in Super Bowl XVLII, I think Jason Pierre-Paul poses a stronger threat as a pass rusher. He is able to use speed and leverage much more effectively than Strahan, whose power and technique allowed him to play effectively for over a decade. Also, Jason is a few inches taller and has a larger wingspan, which allows him to bat down passes at the line of scrimmage with greater ease. Add Jason's agility and quickness and it will be hard for New England to decide who to single-block when the Giants go to their NASCAR package of four defensive ends.

Speaking of the NASCAR package, one of the strengths of this personnel groups is its ability to use speed to stunt inside to confuse the interior offensive line and create confusion. The Patriots' guard pairing of Logan Mankins (who might be the best right guard in the NFL) and a future Hall of Fame candidate, Brian Waters, will help neutralize the interior pressure of the Giants DE stunts.

As for handling pressure off the edge, I envision New England using a lot of two tight end formations, flanking the tackles. Watch the Patriots tight ends to chip Osi Umenyiora and Pierre-Paul before releasing into their patterns. I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots run alot out of this formation either, making the Giants even more reluctant to replace power with speed on their defensive line.

In terms of offensive personnel, look for the Giants to use a lot of three wide receiver sets to spread out the Giants defense and force linebackers like Kiwanuka into coverage. Speaking of coverage, based on the way Vernon Davis torched the Giants safeties in the NFC championship, watch for the Patriots to continue to use multiple formations with Gronkowski and Hernandez flexed away from the core of the formation to attack the Patriots defense.

While all of this sounds like I am predicting a Patriots victory, I'm not. I think the Giants will win based on the recent 4th quarter successes of Eli Manning and the ability of the Giants to rotate fresh pass rushers into the game to frustrate Tom Brady, both in base personnel and the aforementioned NASCAR package. I see an another flurry of second half offensive fireworks from both teams, ultimately resulting in a 24-21 Giants victory. Enjoy the game and the commercials!

Direct Marketing, Or That Piece of Paper You Just Threw Away

The public and advertisers alike shun what we traditionally think of direct marketing. You know, those flimsy slips of paper you receive in the mail, bundled inside of your newspaper (yes, people still receive those) and plastered to the bottom of your greasy paper bag from McBurgerland. While most of us casually toss these miscreants into the trash like some offensive piece of excrement, some of us actually hold on to these denizens of the deal.

The general purpose of these coupons/vouchers/cries for attention is to generate foot traffic. By seeing that Joe Shmoe is having a 20% off all men's ties sale or that Jane Doe is giving away free lattes between 6 and 9 a.m. on Tuesday, they hope to pique your interest just enough for you to show up. Unfortunately, most consumers have already made up their minds well before receiving this illicit contraband (their words, not mine. Ok, they're my words.).

It doesn't have to be this way. I was told in one of my Creative Circus advertising classes that one of the best and easiest ways to gain a consumer's trust is by giving them a gift. The other day, as I made a hurried lunch run to Krystals, I stumbled upon a coupon promoting a new meal called The Touchdown Combo. As I was about to crumple this into a ball, I noticed on the corner a call to turn the paper over. On the opposite side were dotted lines that, when followed correctly, turned this ordinary coupon into a paper football. This is precisely what I mean by giving the consumer a gift: don't bludgeon them with starbursts and loud type crying out New! Limited Time! Now with more soylent green!* Rather, reward their attention with a simple gesture of fun. When done well, direct marketing shows that you are not simply a shill machine and can actually connect with your commercial constituents on a human level. Now if you'll excuse me, I have a new game to play...

*Soylent Green is people.

NFL Lockout Aftermath: More Than Just Statistics

With the NFL lockout finally lifted and sanity restored, it's time to assess the changes that have occurred with the new collective bargaining agreement. In terms of numerical and fiscal battles, both sides gained what they wanted to a certain extent. For NFL owners, the ability to opt out of the new CBA in 2015 and 60% of all team-generated revenue are major conquests. The players have even more to smile about with a trimmed down Offseason Training Activities (OTAs) schedule, better retired player benefits and the sigh of relief that the proposed 18 game schedule is more or less off the table for the foreseeable future.

However one glaring note that is lost in all of this profiteering is the narrowing down of padded practices from 17 to 14 a season. In any normal league year, this wouldn't be a huge deal. Unfortunately, when you consider that practically 3/4 of the 2011 offseason is gone, you are left with fewer opportunities for improvement. Consider that free agency begins tomorrow (about 5 months later than usual) and that an entire rookie class has yet to have a regulated NFL practice with coaches and it's obvious that many aspects of football will suffer in 2011. While grueling and torturous as they may be, training camps are where most teams gain the knowledge, strength and endurance necessary to navigate a 16 game season. Here's what I predict (begrudgingly) will happen this year because of the lockout and the fallout surrounding it:

-Many of the playoff teams and teams on the cusp of the playoffs (Buccaneers and Raiders, to name a few) will lose momentum due to lack of coaching, causing key younger players like Josh Freeman to experience a sharp drop in performance.

-Any rookie player placed in a crucial role like Cam Newton, Jake Locker or Von Miller will have their learning curve accelerated exponentially, causing some of them to develop permanent shell shock or what I like to call 'David Carr Syndrome'.

-Passing teams with established quarterbacks like the Patriots, Colts, Chargers and Saints will have a leg-up on more smashmouth teams like the Dolphins, Jets or Jaguars because their offenses can be replicated in 7-on-7 drills, even without coaching staffs present.

-Quarterbacks will be at a premium in free agency, even more than expected. Yes, Kevin Kolb and Vince Young are sure to be traded. But don't be surprised to see some acquisitions that don't initially make sense to the average fan. One quarterback to keep an eye on is Shaun Hill, the current backup to Matthew Stafford in Detroit. Due to Drew Stanton's above average play last season, Hill is now a luxury rather than a necessity. He's played well in spots in both San Francisco and Detroit and would work well in a West coast offense. I'd look for the Seahawks and Vikings to trade for him.

-Lastly, there will be a glut of top-tier runningbacks with pedestrian seasons. Look for teams with a stable of runningbacks like the Saints and Cowboys to prosper this season due to the football equivalent of a change-up pitcher.

That's enough doom and gloom for now. All semantics aside, no football is much worse than mediocre football and I think everyone can agree on that.

Playing in the sandbox.

Anyone who has ever met me has equated my enthusiasm and outlook on life to that of a child. I've often been called 'a big kid' and not just because of my weight. I am indeed a child at heart and this outlook is often reflected in my writing. Part of my infatuation with advertising is the inherent playfulness hidden in the creative. Once you peel back the layers of product attributes and fine print, you can find some damn funny and cool stuff. As you can tell by past blog posts, I am a huge pro football fan. This extends to their advertising as well. I'm a sucker for low-brow, misogynistic humor often found in beer commercials for brands like Budweiser and Coors. But as a red-blooded southern football fiend, these ads resonate with me and therefore with the target. They are intended to be crass and flippant. I try to put that same colorful and playful humor in my radio spots. What I can't accomplish with pictures, I recapitulate with language, tonality, sound effects and music. The other day, I broke out into a dance session as I laid down background music for ads about lasagna. Advertising, writing, and yes radio aren't about seriousness and work to me. It's about tapping into that inner child. What's your sandbox?

The Invisible Ruler

Football players are often projected based on certain measurables such as height, weight, strength and speed. Millions of dollars and a certain amount of prestige are attached to where you are picked in the NFL Draft. Coaches are a lot more lenient with a struggling first round pick than they are with a later round player. Why am I mentioning all of these things? With the conclusion of the 2009-2010 NFL season rapidly approaching, the player evaluation process is reaching its peak. The Senior Bowl, a popular and accurate tool for coaches and pro scouts to gauge a player's ability, commences on Saturday. Strangely, it is the four days of practice that lead up to this game that matters most. These practices put players in unfamiliar situations with players they have only seen from afar. Behind the scenes, players interact with coaches and scouts to give a better feel of a player's character. Character, poise and leadership are unquantifiable traits that prove to be the most important for professional athletes. What most casual fans do not realize is that athletic ability is relative on the next level. Most NFL quarterback have a strong arm. Most NFL wide receivers can run the 40 yard dash in 4.4 seconds. What separates good players from great ones is the invisible ruler. How much does this player love football? What does this player do when everything is falling apart around him? How does this player respond to adversity or criticism? The answers to these questions can be very telling and provide the dividing line between players who last a year in the league and those whose career spans over a decade. Some of the best football players are those who do not fit the prototype of their position. Joe Montana was viewed as a small player with a slight frame and an average arm. Jerry Rice was a slow small college player. Sam Mills was too short to play linebacker. All of these players had long and prosperous careers. Speed and strength are and will always be impressive attributes. However, it is what lies beneath that defines greatness.

Christmas Capitalism

For a holiday that officially starts and ends on December 25th, the commemoration of Christmas is seemingly expanded to ridiculous lengths every year. Like most holidays in America, there is a distinct brand of commercialism and capitalism that has painted over the more sacred elements of Christmas. Black Friday kicks off this rapid parade of bargain shopping and hording of gifts, which means that there is a cavalcade of TV, radio and Internet ads that accompany this procession of spending. Old holiday symbols and relics are rehashed every year: Frosty the Snowman, Rudolf the Red-Nosed Reindeer, and of course, the ubiquitous Santa. Retail outlets like Gap try to shake things up with jazzy song and dance numbers. Unfortunately, most of these ads come off as hokey, uninspired, even boring. The repetition of symbols and songs combined with hard selling takes all the humanity out of the corporation-consumer relationship. Joseph A. Bank is practically begging customers to shop at their stores! I find it oddly appropriate that the most amusing and memorable advertising comes from insurance providers and beer companies. I think that even Santa Claus would need a Bud Light to digest some of this repetitive garbage.

No Fun League

Anyone who knows me on a personal level knows that I have strong feelings about the NFL. In short, I love it. However, there are some nuances about the league that constantly irk me, particularly those that involve the interference of the front office. Today I read a very interesting story by Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports about Philadelphia Eagles tight end Brent Celek. Celek celebrated a touchdown reception this past Sunday by posing with a teammate in the corner of the endzone. So what? Well, it garnered significant attention from the league office because the celebration involved the ubiquitous Captain Morgan pose. This pose was premeditated as part of an effort by Captain Morgan to raise brand awareness through a gorilla marketing strategy involving the participation of NFL players. While the NFL along with the other major American sports leagues vehemently oppose this as crass, underhanded marketing, I view it from a much different angle. Captain Morgan made a bold move by asking for a select group of NFL players to participate in this campaign. What gets lost in the uproar is the contributions made by Captain Morgan towards the Gridiron Greats Assistance Fun, an initiative created to raise awareness and funds for retired NFL players. Putting all the business semantics and bureaucracy aside, I thought both Captain Morgan and Celek were not in the wrong here. I think its time that a league known for its tight control and reluctance to think outside the box needs to reevaluate the way it does business. It's time for the NFL to stop being the No Fun League.