With the NFL lockout finally lifted and sanity restored, it's time to assess the changes that have occurred with the new collective bargaining agreement. In terms of numerical and fiscal battles, both sides gained what they wanted to a certain extent. For NFL owners, the ability to opt out of the new CBA in 2015 and 60% of all team-generated revenue are major conquests. The players have even more to smile about with a trimmed down Offseason Training Activities (OTAs) schedule, better retired player benefits and the sigh of relief that the proposed 18 game schedule is more or less off the table for the foreseeable future.
However one glaring note that is lost in all of this profiteering is the narrowing down of padded practices from 17 to 14 a season. In any normal league year, this wouldn't be a huge deal. Unfortunately, when you consider that practically 3/4 of the 2011 offseason is gone, you are left with fewer opportunities for improvement. Consider that free agency begins tomorrow (about 5 months later than usual) and that an entire rookie class has yet to have a regulated NFL practice with coaches and it's obvious that many aspects of football will suffer in 2011. While grueling and torturous as they may be, training camps are where most teams gain the knowledge, strength and endurance necessary to navigate a 16 game season. Here's what I predict (begrudgingly) will happen this year because of the lockout and the fallout surrounding it:
-Many of the playoff teams and teams on the cusp of the playoffs (Buccaneers and Raiders, to name a few) will lose momentum due to lack of coaching, causing key younger players like Josh Freeman to experience a sharp drop in performance.
-Any rookie player placed in a crucial role like Cam Newton, Jake Locker or Von Miller will have their learning curve accelerated exponentially, causing some of them to develop permanent shell shock or what I like to call 'David Carr Syndrome'.
-Passing teams with established quarterbacks like the Patriots, Colts, Chargers and Saints will have a leg-up on more smashmouth teams like the Dolphins, Jets or Jaguars because their offenses can be replicated in 7-on-7 drills, even without coaching staffs present.
-Quarterbacks will be at a premium in free agency, even more than expected. Yes, Kevin Kolb and Vince Young are sure to be traded. But don't be surprised to see some acquisitions that don't initially make sense to the average fan. One quarterback to keep an eye on is Shaun Hill, the current backup to Matthew Stafford in Detroit. Due to Drew Stanton's above average play last season, Hill is now a luxury rather than a necessity. He's played well in spots in both San Francisco and Detroit and would work well in a West coast offense. I'd look for the Seahawks and Vikings to trade for him.
-Lastly, there will be a glut of top-tier runningbacks with pedestrian seasons. Look for teams with a stable of runningbacks like the Saints and Cowboys to prosper this season due to the football equivalent of a change-up pitcher.
That's enough doom and gloom for now. All semantics aside, no football is much worse than mediocre football and I think everyone can agree on that.